China is asserting that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to them, even though it’s a state in India. They’re restating this claim right after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the area. This action is intentional and part of China’s strategy to assert its territorial claims and create tension with India. By repeatedly asserting these claims, China aims to reinforce its stance and potentially provoke India into a response. This behavior fits into a broader pattern of China’s territorial assertiveness in various regions.
The Modi government has responded verbally to China’s unwarranted statements regarding Arunachal Pradesh. However, the main goal seems to be to engage in a verbal exchange with China and keep the issue alive. It’s important to note that China, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, is facing economic and political challenges, with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) losing credibility, as seen with countries like Italy withdrawing from Chinese debt agreements. In contrast, India, under PM Modi, has seen economic and political growth, positioning itself to confront assertive powers like China on the global stage.
India has adopted a strategy of responding to China’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh and parts of East Ladakh with standardized statements. Unlike in the past, India is no longer bothered by repeated Chinese assertions. Instead, the Modi government is actively engaging with allies in Southeast Asia, as demonstrated by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to the Philippines. Additionally, India’s support for Taiwan is gaining prominence, despite confusion in US leadership regarding the ‘One China’ policy. India has refrained from explicitly endorsing this policy for the past decade, while maintaining relationships with the Tibetan leadership in exile and advocating for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Some voices are encouraging the Modi government to confront the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for political reasons rather than genuine nationalistic concerns. Nevertheless, under the Modi administration, there has been significant improvement in India’s military infrastructure along the 3488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC), and efforts are underway to ensure that Indian troops are always adequately equipped with ammunition and artillery in case of emergencies.
The underlying reason for China’s recent provocations may stem from economic challenges, particularly the bursting of the Chinese economic bubble due to stock market declines. Reports suggest that the Chinese government has intervened heavily in the stock market, spending billions of Renminbi (RMB) to stabilize it, similar to their actions during the 2015 stock market collapse. Additionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has amassed significant debt, reaching close to a trillion US dollars, with countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and others struggling to repay their loans. These countries are often forced to relinquish state equity to repay high-interest loans, leaving China with limited options to manage these debts effectively. However, providing loan waivers or debt relief is challenging given China’s projected economic growth rate of five percent and increasing international scrutiny over its coercive practices.
In dealing with China’s persistent claims over Arunachal Pradesh, India’s best approach may be to consistently refute Beijing’s assertions and assert its own stance through diplomatic channels.